Roman Oseghale's blog

________Leadership and advancement

Naira versus the Dollar, Jonathan’s Policies as Buhari’s Challenges, the Simple Economic Principles, and the colossal Damage.

81 Comments

“Knowledge will forever govern ignorance; and a people who mean to be their own governors must arm themselves with the power which knowledge gives”. —— James Madison

Naira Vs. dollars

 

There are two basic principles that govern economics within an economy, for if you transgress on the first one you are bound to pay direly for your actions in the future.

  1. Do not spend but save and pay off your debt when the economy is at its potential and spend when the economy is below potential to bring it back to potential.
  2. Any policy, either fiscal or monetary taken by the government to push the economy back to its potential on the long run will not start to yield results until after 6 to 8 quarters, which is a year and a half to two years in a developed economy because they have less shocks and might take up to 12 quarters (3 years) or more in a developing economy because they have more shocks. Examples are inflations, exchange rate, civil unrest etc.

To understand these principles we will go back to history:

1999, Olusegun Obasanjo and his economic team

Obasanjo, was a president that understood economic principles and followed these core principles in managing the economy. Between 1990 and 1999, Nigeria’s economy only grew at 2% annually making it the worst economic period for the country, in 1999 when General Addulsalam handed power to OBJ, Nigeria had only USD$4 billion in its foreign reserve, but by the time OBJ left office we had USD$60 billion in the foreign reserve and another USD$40 billion in the Excess crude oil account.. OBJ and his economic team through their economic policies decided to diversify the economy moving it away from the mineral resource sector. Overnight, Nigeria’s economy grew shifting from below potential to potential and grew at annual average of 8.92% between year 2000 and 2009, Nigerian’s economic growth was only next to China and India in the world.

Obasanjo did the most sensible thing any good leader would do, following the core economic principles which may not be popular to the people, Obasanjo decided to save and pay off our foreign debt rather than spend. The effect of this is that you have money to spend to push the economy back to its potential when the economy is not doing well or below potential, and the second thing is having reduced or paid off your debt, majority of the money will go into capital expenditures in the form of stimulus to jump start the economy rather than using it to service debts.

With the economy growing and at its potential, had OBJ decided to push money into the economy through government spending, it would have only resulted to pushing the economy beyond its potential, heating up the economy and causing inflation. Not only will it cause inflation, so much money in circulation increases the wealth of the people overnight, when people get richer, export tends to reduce and import increases because they are able to afford more of foreign goods, this puts a strain on the dollar reserve of the country increasing the value of the dollars against the Naira and will ultimately lead to an increase in negative balance of payment for the government in international trade as Nigeria is not even an exporting nation.

The Effects of Obasanjo’s Policies

Most major governments coming out of economic woes do not enjoy the positive effects of their sound policies, it was actually about after 4 to 5 years later that we started to experience the positive effects of OBJ’s economic policies.

Soludo as economic adviser and later CBN governor was able to drive his economic goals using monetary policies, when Soludo became CBN governor, dollar was N147 and by the time he was leaving, the dollar had reduced to N117, gaining a value of N30 against the dollar.

Nigeria had USD$100 billion between the Foreign reserve and the Excess crude oil account and in 2008 when there was a global recession and the economy fell below potential, Nigeria had enough foreign reserve to keep the economy growing. Nigeria had paid off majority of its loan which meant during recessions we can spend more on capital projects as stimulus and reduce expenditures for servicing debts.

Was Obasanjo’s policies the most popular among the people?….obviously no, but it was the best for the economy, most politicians who follow the core economic principles are never popular because people always want more money to spend which creates a future negative effect for the economy like what we are facing today.

Every economic boom enjoyed by the Jonathan administration was the hard work of his once political godfather OBJ and his economic team. Basically what OBJ had done was to take care of the macroeconomic problems of the country, the Naira was very stable, there was confidence in the economy and Foreign Direct Investments poured into Nigeria. Had OBJ employed the wrong economic policies before leaving office, and the policies taking about 3 to 4 years to see the effects, Jonathan would have been the one to suffer it, but OBJ stayed true to the cause of a sound and solid economic policy till he left office.

All major changes require between 5 to 10 years to reach the goal depending on the magnitude of the change, and one of the greatest reasons change efforts fail is because the successor does not either understand the change or does not have the same mission, vision and drive to implement the change. This is why most leaders choose their successors to complete whatever they have started since time does not permit them in office to drive the change to completion.

Jonathan, the opposite of economics and the beginning of our economic woes.

Like the proverbial prodigal son who inherits wealth from his father and without challenge to build on it to continue the legacy of the father but squanders it, Jonathan employed the direct opposite of economic principles with the help of Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala as minister of the coordinating economy. They spent and borrowed more when the economy was at its potential leaving the economy vulnerable during recession. While the ignorant Nigerians hailed her as coming from the World Bank and better suited for the job, the question remains whether it was her influence that was employed or her capabilities. Someone who claims to have worked with the World Bank and has risen to the position of Managing Director should know these simple economic principles.

In 2010, Lamido Sanusi Lamido, sounded a note of warnings that the Jonathan Administration was depleting the foreign reserve and that if we faced a recession or drop in oil prices it might spell disaster for the economy. This put the Jonathan administration on a lock horn with Sanusi and seeing Sanusi as someone who will not keep quiet switched over to spending the dollars in the Excess crude oil account.

When the governors found out that the Excess crude oil account was being tampered with by the Executive, took the executive to court and  demanding that the money be shared rather than Jonathan and his cronies spending it. That was how the USD$40 billion left in the Excess crude account by OBJ was wasted. While the administration sold crude at an average price of about USD$110 per barrel for five years it never saved a dime but rather depleted everything the OBJ government had built on ground.

OBJ and his team clearly balanced the five factors of the GDP while the economy grew, he refused to push excess money into the economy, and this was clearly shown from the percentage of the service sector to GDP. In 1999 it was 26.8% and increased to 28.7% in 2009, it stayed at an average of 24.5% in 11 years, from 1999 to 2009, by 2010, our services as a percentage of GDP had increased to 51.2% over 100% increment, while the GDP grew by only 7.8%. Services had increased to 55.5% by 2014 with an average of 52.3% in 5 years from 2010 to 2014, still recording over a 100% increment while the GDP had not increased more than 28.7% over that same period.

The more money injected into the economy, the more consumer spending increases and the more the services increases, what this clearly means is that the economy was not expanding but consumer spending was increasing, our external earning was not increasing but internal spending was increasing, our revenue from export was decreasing while we spent everything we earned.

Percentage of our exports to GDP in 2001 was 45.4%, by 2006 it was 43.1%, 2010 it had further reduced to 25.3%, put in mind that our GDP and services was increasing while our external revenue earning was decreasing, by 2013 it had reduced to 18.0% and 18.4% by 2014. What is means is that our GDP growth was being fueled by too much liquidity within the system, all the money that should be in the foreign reserve was being spent in the economy thereby increasing consumer spending and the demand on the dollar.

Prior to 2003 before she was employed by the OBJ administration, Okonjo-Iweala was Vice-President and Corporate Secretary of the World Bank Groups, her job description was not that of a core banker or economist but more of compliance and due diligence. It is obvious that while she may wield the influence, the core capabilities are not there and this could be the reason after OBJ paid and renegotiated the loan arrangement for Nigeria, she was moved to the external affairs ministry from which she later resigned only to come back and plunge us into an economic disaster. Soludo was to confirm this in his open letter that most of the technical requirements and capabilities needed for the loan payments and renegotiations was handled by himself and the CBN and not Okonjo-Iweala as everyone had believed.

Why Politicians follow the Political Economic Decisions

While the core economic principles make politician seem as if they are doing nothing but it is indeed the best and most effective way to run the economy, the reasons they make counter decisions are as follows:

  1. They want to look good in the eyes of the populace despite the fact that their political economic decisions will have a long term negative effect which might start to materialise after 3 years. Such dire economic decisions are mostly taken when elections are around the corner.
  2. Stealing is the second reason politicians follow political economic decisions, they can’t just go into the vault and take money so they steal through over inflated projects, creating abandoned projects since the projects were not the aim in the first place. So when you see politicians embarking on massive projects during election period while the economy is booming, be sure to know that the project is not the aim.

Buhari, his Many Challenges, and the Sad truth.

As mentioned earlier, economic policies in a developing economy takes about 12 quarters (3 years) for you to start feeling either the negative or positive impact of the policies. Whatever we are suffering today are the consequences of the policies of the 2010 to 2014.

Whatever policies Buhari and his team have put on ground will not have its effects until the next three years minimum, that is just the economic truth, when OBJ started his economic policies after inheriting all the mess from the military era, it took about 5 years before we started seeing the positive effects of his policies, that’s just the way it works in economics. For those who are asking for the dividends of change, his change policies are what will lead to the goal.

There are still tougher times ahead and it is the obvious truth, in 2008 when the global recession hit Nigeria, the country had money in the foreign reserve, this clearly helped the economy as the government of Umaru Musa Yar Adua had money to inject into the economy as stimulus. When the economy is at recession or below potential as it is right now, government injects money into the economy through government spending on capital projects which acts as stimulus creating a multiplier effect in the economy. But the sad truth now is that Nigeria does not have such money  hence jump starting the economy will be a herculean task for Buhari as oil prices have equally dwindled reducing Nigeria’s external earnings.

Of Change and the Expected Miracles

“There is nothing more difficult to carry out, nor more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to handle, than to initiate a new order of things. For the reformer has enemies in all those who profit by the old order, and only lukewarm defenders in all those who profit by the new” – Niccolo Machiavelli

For those who ask and are expecting the result as if it is the change, you must pause and find out what the meaning of change is, they think and expect that the change is an end itself, almost as a noun, change is a verb, and it is the process in which you reach your goal and aspiration.

The goal is the goal but change is what helps you reach your goal, it is a continuum. A fat person that weighs 200kg and wants to reduce to 80kg, change is not reducing to 80kg, the goal is reducing to 80kg but change is to stop eating junk food, stop ice cream, go to the gym and exercise, that is the change that will help you shed the weight and you reach your goal of 80kg.

Buhari is instituting and driving the change, it is the change that will get Nigeria to her feet again, he is curbing corruption, plugging the loopholes, it is no longer business as usual, people are made to return stolen funds, EFCC has woken up and those who thought they could not be touched are now going to court in handcuffs, the Nigerian Customs are now generating more money and becoming accountable. We cannot totally wipe out corruption but it will be greatly reduced because people are starting to fear the consequences of their actions and they know they can’t continue to steal with impunity.

These are the change we voted for and if it continues this way we will build a better Nigeria and reach our goal, the goal still remains the goal, but CHANGE the process which we will achieve it. Buhari will obviously make mistakes, but with his integrity we will keep to the course.

People are not happy because during Jonathans time there was so much money in circulation and most people spent like there was no tomorrow, the political economic decisions are those that are popular among the people, but what they don’t see is that it is a short solution to a long term economic consequences.

Nigerians and the Chinese became the highest purchasers of private jets in the world, while that of China could be explained economically, we could not explain the rationale behind that of Nigeria, but we are all suffering the consequences today, what seem good to the people at that time was a future economic disaster.

Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance”…………Martin Luther King Jr.

Author: Roman Oseghale

Roman Oseghale holds Masters degree in Architecture and a graduate of Executive MBA from the Telfer School of Management and Leadership, University of Ottawa, Canada, he is a Consultant and Business Intelligence Analyst and the CEO of IntelServe Inc. a Canadian Business Consulting Company. He is a passionate analyst and writer on Leadership and Economics, He is a strong advocate of Investing in Human Capital Development to drive Economic Growth and Sustainability. www.intelserveinc.com

81 thoughts on “Naira versus the Dollar, Jonathan’s Policies as Buhari’s Challenges, the Simple Economic Principles, and the colossal Damage.

  1. Dis is master piece dat shld reach every ignorant Nigerians. Dey need to understand wot exactly is happening. Wy we re were we re now. Infact dey need to be educated on wot is change. Dey re all expecting a magic in a short while forgetting dat d country has bn eaten to d bones by d out gone govt. Tnx for dis enlightenment.

    Like

  2. its far past the era where we think ignorance is bliss.the development of this nation is caught between political,ethnic battles which spells doom for the nation because in the face of all these the nation cannot get the best of its leaders when the one in power has more conflict issues to deal with than developmental issues.
    its so sad though that most not Nigerians don’t know the Genesis of the problem we are facing today.

    Like

  3. Brilliant article.

    Like

  4. This is a masterpiece from a master craftsman! Brilliantly stated and clearly understood. You just opened my eyes to see a glimpse of what my life is currently and how it could be IF I commit to making the CHANGE I need to make now. It is not just about Nigeria, this change must first begin with me.

    Like

  5. This is an eye opener. It is a must read for all Nigerians. Patience is the word. Destructions of many years cannot be corrected within a few days.

    Like

  6. God bless you for this article.Pls can it be shared?

    Like

  7. Brilliant Piece.. Wish there was a way to sink all of what is happening right now into every Nigerian’s head.
    But oh well..

    Like

  8. Brilliant piece and good writing I must say, havnt seen that in a while on the internet. But there is a lot of bias in it as regards Ngozi. Okonjo. The part she played as head of the economic team under obasanjo, the fact that the ECA was her idea, the main reason she was removed as finance minister, the truth about the ground work on getting us the debt relief, these things were not said.
    However, you are correct about politicians making popular choices in order to be liked.

    Like

  9. Insightful and thought provoking!

    Like

  10. I haven’t read such a brilliant breakdown of the Economic administration of Presidents in series before. This is the first and indeed it is very detailed. I am sharing and re-posting this, I hope you grant me pardon for oversharing on all my social media pages.

    Like

  11. A very brilliant analysis! Thank you. Sure going to share

    Like

  12. as much as i like the way u elucidate ur points my problem is this government already has an image/perception problem. Nigerians would like a government that empathizes and takes all through the fine points of their plan and implementation procedures. He should not lose us abeg……….its too early

    Like

  13. Awesome, really insightful, thanks for this brilliant piece. This is an in-depth factual analysis, every Nigerian and her interest seekers should go through amazing piece. We deserve to know the truth, that will set us free from ignorant accusations and bondage..

    Like

  14. This is very imdormative. Where have you been? We need intelligent minds like you to speak up often. Thank you for this Master piece. Permission to share.

    Like

    • Thanks….you can go ahead and share, the whole essence is to educate people and let them know the true situation so we don’t make the same mistake again.

      Like

      • Please try and post this on nairaland.com and places like lindaikeji that’s where most of our youths spend there days

        Like

      • Thanks for this masterpiece. The most painful part is that even Nigerians who aren’t ignorant, those who know are pretending not to know. They go on deceiving our majority illiterates and inciting them against the govt, especially those of them who were never supporters of Buhari.

        Like

  15. Very insightful. Nigerians seem to be very ignorant of all these. I wish this piece is shorter. Lots of folks out there will read if it were… we are poor readers: a part of the problem we have as a people. I’m sharing this please.

    Like

  16. Very insightful, pls permit me to share this wonderful piece.

    Like

  17. Wao, this is explosive. It couldn’t have been better said and I think the government needs people like you who understand the real issues and can communicate them very lucidity. This is an act of patriotism. Keep up the good work countryman.

    Like

  18. As brilliant as that piece was, there is still some atom of bias in it, how on earth can one be able to separate the contribution of Okonjo Iweala from Obasanjo economic achievements and that of his debt forgiveness /debt repayment. The writer was only trying to exonerate the present administration from the country economic predicament but failed to tell us exactly in clear term what economic policies that is on ground now to drive the change agenda Apart from the 2.1billion dollars arms probe which may not fetch us #40b if those that were arrested now are convicted and made to return their loot, are we saying once these looted fund is recovered the economy would bounce back probably in the next three years. Obasanjo established EFCC and ICPC to recover looted fund including late Gen Sani Abacha fund which were lodged in various parts of the world, he did not wait for the recovery of the looted fund before he put in place his economic think-tank that put Nigeria back on track. For how long will Nigeria be blaming Jonathan, an adage says if those that are on earth are short of ideas then we remember the dead, nobody is shielding Jonathan nor blaming PMB for the entire economic problem facing the country but it should be recall that during electioneering campaign, we were told that APC govt will make #1 to equal $1,within six weeks Boko haram will be wiped off, 2 million jobs will not be created annually etc. This is why Nigerians are totally disappointed, they were promising as if they have a magic wand that can turn around our predicament within the first one year. The simple lesson we were made to learn for those gullible Nigerian who believe anything the politicians tells them was that we should reasonable and logical when we are taking electoral decision, today it is not GEJ or PMB that is suffering the economic crisis but as usual “the common man” God bless Nigeria. Adewole,

    Liked by 1 person

    • Nice article but not totally convincing sir,first n foremost….any leader that blames his predecessor for his present problems is already a failure (for me)
      …as much as u want to paint obj as a saint…i’ll totally disagree becos he initiated d present corruption circle we have been experiencing since our new democratic season….I would neva blame a gej gov for where we are presently cos he is not in charge anymore….blaming a predecessor for my current issues is absolutely not my own style …if I do ,it shows my weekness…a good consultant brought in to fix a problem (of a building in my context) knowing fully well d problem wuld not keep blaming d previous consultant of a bad job done….

      Like

      • You are right on point Femi. Electricity is the maor factor that dwindles business fortunes in this nation. Had the $16bn been applied appropriately, today we would have been witnessing the economic impact. The entire funds grew wings and that was during OBJ’s tenure

        Like

      • @femi this is not about blame it is about the truth.

        Like

      • Have you ever taken time to reflect on the genesis of the 16b USD power scam/fraud? It was a minority report by Ndidi Elumelu, who was later found to have employed blackmail to extort Rural Electricity Agency. The other members of the committee disagreed with the report he presented, but Nigerians have now taken it as the truth.

        Like

      • No one is painting obj as a saint. But on the economy, he had an A1 compared to Gej. Fact! I wonder wht the problem is with Nigerians these days. Whenever a probe is done into d cause of issues so as to learn from errors, u wont like it becos Gej was involved. Believe it or not, our problems started when d last administration started spending as though money was going out of fashion. Dt is d bitter truth and u can go and commit suicide if u hate truth

        Like

      • What has this government put on ground since the elections were won……nothing whatsoever rather than blame blame blame…… The president has been globe trotting instead of staying in Nigeria to tackle issues…..the minute this government wakes up to the realization that they are in power and no longer the opposition, the better! This government may spend the next 4 years blaming GEJ and the signs are pointing towards that.

        Like

  19. This is an Educative, informative&metaphysically agravated write up. I wish all Nigerians can read this without any political or ethnical discrimination .

    Like

  20. Wow….Very apt and articulated ,every paragraph is loaded with knowledge and points. Everyone should read this daily after reading the bible. We shall keep forwarding this until every Nigerian reads it

    Like

  21. If and only if they didn’t truncate or rather abort the change that will lead us to our goal. As you’ve rightly elucidate it, it’s patient for the change to take effect, do we have that patience? I just hope we will endure for us to reach the promised land. If not we will be wandering aimlessly in the wilderness. Good piece my brother, you illustrate your write up with abound ant proofs and data, keep it up.

    Like

  22. This article has hit the nail on the head, a brilliant piece that should reach every Nigerian, especially the impatient and ignorant ones.

    Like

  23. Great write up. Very insightful and revealing. I especially like the simple, yet effective approach to explaining economic principles while using quotes to add credibility and put the message in context. Very enjoyable read!

    Like

  24. Bro, u did a very great job sir. You shouldn’t be the one giving this analysis, Mr President ougth to be the one giving us the breakdown of his policies and economic direction, with the short, medium and long term benefit. I can just hope that he is working in the direction of the analysis u have and that he gets a result up to a pass mark level. Great job once again. Pls can u help me forward it to my email sir for future reference. Thanks in anticipation.

    Like

  25. No doubt,any economic analyst can come up with any brilliant article to explain economic matter but i call that theory. Lets be practical and be real and stop judging and condeming. In this piece u didnt talk about what happen to those reserve before gej took over. You didnt also state the true figure in the reserve. It was $52billion dollar not $60billion. You didnt also that obj enjoyed debt relief but you kept saying obj paid. Anx time the debt is service hardly can any govt save. You also fail to state that, instead of the governors to seek for those monies not to be spent by fg,they opted for it to ae shared. You sounded as if they did the right thing. Ok, what about the extravagant life lived by the governors wn the sharing started? What about the over $16billion energy fund under obj? Under gej our economy became biggest in africa,did you forget that? You also said all economic glory enjoyed by gej was cos of obj. This alone has discredit your writeup. Peace!

    Like

    • It does not pay to be this clueless o. In all u hv said u couldnt even intellectually fault the write-up. All u did was ramble back and forth

      Like

  26. My brother,God will surely bless you for this masterpiece. Is there anyway this article can be published in the Nigerian dailies?

    Like

  27. What a mastee piece? It indeed says it all.we must trully help Buhari to suceed.

    Like

  28. Nigerians voted for change but it is rather unfortunate that they are grossly unware of how the route to change normally is. They should revisit the book of exodus to once again appreciate how the journey from slavery to freedom was for the isrealites. Of course if we faint not and give PMB full support (with constructive criticism when necessary, we will reach the promised landi

    Like

  29. Great article! While I will not fault your position/theory, it does look like an attempt to absolve PMB of our current situation. Yes GEJ squandered but your theory on waiting 3 years is suspect. In a 3 year plan, there must be quarterly milestones right? We won’t just wake up great!

    Like

  30. So Jonathan is d cos of fuel scarcity, Fulani killings,book haram still bombing??? Wot about d man we gave d job 2 fix it? D writer is bias…..

    Like

  31. By this, we understand that in the long run this CHANGE will eventually pay off. But according to John Maynard Keynes, in the long run, we are all DEAD.

    Like

  32. Kudos.What an educative piece of analysis.Bt I think led administration needs to alternate ways of reducing suffering of Nigerian masses because richers are not wearing the shoe.Price of consumer goods are sky rocketing day in and out.May Almighty help and guide our leaders.

    Like

  33. A nice writeup sir….. Well stated and arranged in sequence. But there are some element of bias in the writeup sir. Though the writeup gives hope in anticipation for the Change we await. But in other sense, you make it obvious the writeup is bias with your absolute criticism of Jonathan’s administration and promotion of Obj and Buhari’s administration. But the question is this sir
    Do you have the idea of policies in place in Nigeria presently and more so the policy tool Mr President wants to use in curbing it? We are not saying we won’t wait but why should someone be rigid with decisions when the effect of his policies so far have been the inverse of the policy goal?
    The issue of debt, it’s not asif obasanjo paid off all d debt of Nigeria, it’s through Okonjo Iweala that they approach the world bank and asked for debt forgiveness. They consider the fact that the inters paid on the loan was more than the principal amount cumulatively. That’s how they letgo the debt sir.
    I was expecting you to say how the reserve was absolutely consumed but you didn’t talk much abt it. What happened is that the issue of naira deteriorating started far back in 2014 and Jonathan wasn’t sure if it was a short or long term one so he went ahead with his economic team to peg the country currency. That’s one of the reasons the reserve account collapsed. I am not saying they didn’t steal part of the country’s money but aside that, exchange rate pegging was what consume. Ore of the money until they later free it to let the force of demand and supply set in.
    Concerning policy effect sir, it’s not evry policy that has a long time lag……… Some work within leas than 3months let alone of saying 3years. I knows some capital and Agricultural policies take are long term in nature. That’s why there is need for proficient economist in his team to testrun models that will make a gud forecast for his policy goal…… I guess you heard about the removal of education fees and the likes from FX too…… What policy effect do you think that will have on the economy?
    Lastly the issues of corruption, it’s obvious corruption eradication is sentimental. The man is using it to punish certain set of pple mostly the Jonathan administration not as if it’s uniform. Other politicians in APC and the likes too are not saint. Will you say obasanjo didn’t embezzle fund or Tinubu or Fashola that was alleged of spending 78million of lagos state gov or so on his personal website is a saint?
    I salute ur brain for the writeup but average pple will take it to be a writeup by proBuhari. It would have been better if it’s not bias.
    God bless Nigeria.

    Like

  34. Factual fact, eloquently and analytically laid, but the truth is PMB patern of fighting corruption is clearly seen as being lopsided, it is clearly seen that his mission is to clamp down PDPs and especially people from the south. No not one individual from the North is being dragged in by the EFCC apart from Dasuki and one APC man which was released immediately.
    PMB should be even in his approach and not forgetting that the system that brought him to power (corrupt) may not be that comfortable with his agenda. Cheers!

    Like

  35. But how do we explain this to the ordinary Nigerians that carries the greatest population .whose understanding of economics is zero.
    good write up

    Like

  36. Beautiful!!! Unfortunately there are so many out there who’ll read this and still cry bias. How have we gotten to this stage Nigerian? It’s high time we started learning and opening our eyes to see beyond the ethnic and religious divide so as to move this country forward. God bless Nigeria.

    Like

  37. Kudos! Enjoyed every bit of it, surely gon share. I appeal for this to be the first of a series, PMB’s policies should also be analysed for us with zero economics. Thanks, it’s most educative.

    Like

  38. Interesting piece by half. The author however managed to highlight the various economic policy directions of the previous governments. And just when I was eager to see the economic policy framework that PMB has put in place, all I saw was how he is prosecuting looters and plugging leakages! Like seriously?! For the umpteenth time the fight on corruption will NEVER fix the economy. Yes it is laudable to fight corruption but it does not prevent sound economic framework. As we speak Buhari seem not to have anything on the economy.

    I recall vividly that OBJ did mention that Buhari’s weakness is in the knowledge and management of the economy. Buhari seems to be proving OBJ right.

    Like

  39. Nice write with correct analysis but I think the writer is biased bcos during GEJ administration the economy was number 1 in Africa and the corruption we are suffering 2day began from OBJ regime

    Like

  40. Hmmm……. insightful only as far as you want to see. The cause of the spending during Jonathan’s govt was muddled up. Jonathan’s govt embarked on more infrastructural developments than any previous govt in this country. Hence the spending. Ask the present minister of works power & housing under whose ministries all the spendings took place. Moreover. His govt also had a GDP equal to the govt. of Obasanjo witha better record of economic diversification in agriculture,mines and manufacturing. All the present policies being enjoyed by the present administration, is an off shoot of his policies. TSA, motor vehicle assembly plants, increase in agricultureal products etc. We will not get anywhere if we continue to deliberately undermine our fellow citizens just to sing praises of our preferred ones. This present govt. has not so far set forth any policy for our consideration or implementation. The corruption it has faced, no doubt a good project, but not necessarily limited to one govt. It should be all encompassing as it is a Nigerian problem NOT party affiliated.

    Like

  41. Roman, I salute your new found love for writing on economics and politics. While I enjoy your prowess in pushing your thoughts across and extolling the Nigerian politicians that you admire, I do not agree with you on acclaimed successes of Obasanjo administration. Obasanjo was at the helm of the halliburton scandal. All the money he sunk into IPP was a collosal waste with nothing to show for it. It was the same okonjo iweala who served obj that served gej. While obj was a strong man in power, gej was a true democrat who allowed freedom of speech. Obviously, obj tried but he couldn’t lead Nigeria out of d wood. Polity and economy is about well being of the populace. Any governance that does not translate to the well being of the people is an academic work. We became aware of the extent of corruption in gej administration because buhari decided to probe his administration. No one deared to probe obj. Buhari is another strong man in power. What Nigeria needs is strong institutions just as Obama said. Jonathan tried to give Nigeria strong institutions but he had his failures. We hope that Buhari succeeds, not just on paper analysis of macro economics that has no meaning to the average man but in real terms – electricity, job creation, education, good policing, rule of law, respect for different opinions, good road network and etc. Time and space will not permit me to go on.

    Like

    • If you followed the write up and understand the economic principles you will find out that it wasn’t focused on corruption but rather economic principles that should be employed at the right time to drive growth and stabilize all the five factors of the GDP.

      What we fail to understand about the factors of the GDP is one aspect of it can be doing so well at the detriment of the others and it only takes time for the unbalanced part of the GDP to start showing their negativity and consequences.

      Like

      • Good write up!!! You clearly examined GEJ but couldn’t be factual. Kindly answer the following questions:
        1. What was GEJ spending on?
        2. What are the policies in place now? 3. How are they plugging loopholes?
        4. Was it possible for GEJ to have saved, putting into consideration the peculiarities of the world economy then?

        Like

  42. I hope those criticising PMB after Reading this piece will have a rethink because it is too early to expect the change promised by APC now because GEJ did not leave sound economy rather a wasteful one.

    Like

  43. kudos ……. ignorant nigerian like i was in the past need a medium to see this..

    Like

  44. Brilliant write up, on point and a must read. Change is continuous. It is a means to an end and not an end.

    Like

  45. Thk God 4 d writer of ds article. It is good to know all d points enumerated above & even share d article. But I want to ask d writer where he was wen d APC are making dre promises of $1-#1,bringing bak chibok girls in short redeeming our economy wihin few mths? U shld av adviced dem dt it is not possible. It is dre failure to fulfil dre promises dt is bothering us. It is easy 4 u to ask Nigerian to wait 4 d nxt 3 yrs wen u are not feeling it directly. I can’t deceive us d level of poverty is too high. Smth has to b done to safe d situation. Ds is better analysed wen Jonathan was squandering d money not now. It is late.

    Like

  46. Even with all the economic citations your article tend to prove GEJ a terrible person and GMB the better one. You’re like the foreign benefactors who tagged Nigeria the fastest growing economy in the world during the Administration of GEJ and the best in Africa, yet criticised the moment GMB took over. Oga, like someone said before and I paraphrase “you don’t intend to grow while having your eyes behind you”, “a good leader doesn’t blame his predecessor, rather move to overcome the present challenges”. Was OBJ perfect? Did GEJ not meet challenges? Did he blame OBJ for them?
    GMB knowing he was coming into government should have had modalities on ways to develop rather than “crumble” further.
    Let’s not quote principles that cannot be actualized, do you think GMB has all the time? 70% of the people who voted him in has lost confidence already and are regretting.
    Forget the book work for now, let’s face reality. The present government lack seasoned economists and policy makers. So, you tell us. What are the economic implications of this?

    Like

  47. The way the world is going, I think we need to get things done well. Ngozi Okonjo Iweala has done well, I don’t think she is the cause of Nigeria’s issues presently. Let the present administration look for ways to solve the issues of Nigeria instead of thriveng on the blame game.

    Like

  48. This looks like a sponsored post to me. The writer wrote so many thing but not all of it have the basic facts to prove that they are factual, relevant and indeed something we can write home about.

    Like

  49. Sound Economic Policy??? We do not have any infrastructure and we should save. Every economic must brace itself for a burst. When you spend u expect inflation then you try to mop up. You don’t stop spending just because of inflation. US injected cash to sustain their economy and it bounced back. Why would we save when there are is no sufficient grounds for employment creation, roads, power, etc.
    We need to do targeted spending. The current. Administration should focus on development, transparency, rule of law and fairness etc. The lack of sincerity in what is going on leads to doubt and question about the eventual outcome. Should Nigerians squander another 4yrs? Answer is no, there should be visible signs of change not constant accusations of previous administration and silencing reasonable opposition

    Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s