Roman Oseghale's blog

________Leadership and advancement


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PDP Electoral Decisions Causing the Stock Market to lose Billions in Hours.

As the February 23rd, 2019 Presidential and Federal legislative elections results continue to trickle in and the All Progressive Congress (APC) in clear lead as at Monday February the 25th, 2019, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) on the same Monday February 25th, 2019 through its National Chairman, Uche Secondus, in a press briefing claimed the results being announced were in favour of the ruling Party, the All Progressive Congress, APC.

Factors Affecting Investment Decisions

The Chairman claimed the results are filled with “Irregularities” and therefore, “Incorrect and Unacceptable”. He stated that “Our collation centres have the original results from all the polling units in the country. That is from where are going to reclaim our results.”

“The results are incorrect and unacceptable to our party. Officials of the APC working with INEC have decided to alter results to affect our people. This must now be resisted by every well-meaning Nigerian. “INEC must live up to its responsibility. They are under pressure. We have the facts and when the time comes, we begin to release them.”

This singular message unknown to many Nigerians would have passed a shockwave to investors in a country where security is very fragile during elections. In 2017, the World Bank conducted a survey on Multinational Corporations Executives on factors affecting investment decisions in developing economies, and top on the list was Political Stability and Security, with 50% of the CEO respondents stating Political Stability and Security as Critically Important, and 37% stating they are important, of all the 10 factors considered, Political Stability and Security was the most crucial on the list.

As at Tuesday the 26th, February 2019, the Stock market was already reacting to the threat of Political Instability should the election results be contested with market capitalization of listed equities on the same day February 26th, shedding N85 billion (0.69%) in six hours of trading, the market capitalization opened at N12.194 trillion and by close of day was N12.109 trillion.

While some analyst claim that it was because the opposition party, the PDP did not win, they must look at the crucial factors which guide investments and investors decisions, and uncertainty in Political Stability where a major political party heats up the polity may lead to breakdown of law and order which can lead to insecurity and causing investors to lose billions, hence they see the sensible thing to do as quickly liquidating their investments and moving the funds out of the economy, and this can further compound economic situations for the country.

The country at this time must assure investors of its political stability and security and the PDP and APC as the major political parties must be seen to play the role of reassuring confidence in the economy. Heating up the polity will lead to further liquidation of investments from the Stock exchange which will lead to high demand of the dollars, driving up its price as investors move out their funds out of the economy.

 


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The Nigerian Economy, Poverty, and The Ease of Doing Business.

______Why Nigeria Must Reduce Poverty to Attract Foreign Investors

Nigeria must invest in Human Capital Development if it must guarantee peace and security to attract Foreign Direct Investments which is the critical factor CEO’s of Foreign multinationals consider before investing in Emerging Economies. IntelServe Inc. CEO restates this on Channels TV.

With Increasing Poverty, and Extreme Poverty it is certain that crime and insecurity will increase and this will threaten investments into the country. Though the country may have moved up 24 points in the Ease of Doing Business from 169 in 2016 to 145 in 2017, Security still remains the critical factor in attracting foreign investors, Government must stem the flow of people into extreme poverty daily which currently stands at an average of 8,000 daily.

For Nigeria to attract Foreign Investors, the Government must guarantee peace and security, and to guarantee peace and security it must reduce poverty, to reduce poverty it must invest in Human Capital Development to create wealth. Poverty is a threat to Peace and Security.


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China’s Strategy of “Predatory Lending” and the Recolonization of African.

_________Why The Mounting Debt to China is Dangerous for Africa!

Xi Jinping on Africa

With the rise of economic prosperity in China over the last two decades, China is flexing its muscles internationally and lending to nations that are unable to fund national projects, while the projects may look very promising to the countries where they are being offered, China may have other motives as it sinks billions into Africa countries.

While China may be trying to build both economic and political influence in the Africa, Africa is a rich source of mineral resources for China’s rapidly growing economy. With Africa’s emerging market growing at a fast rate, China is bound to benefit from the growth having locked itself into the economy through lending to various countries and governments, many have argued that Africa is the next frontier, the underdeveloped continent seeking attention, while it has the fastest growth in both youth and overall population.

As at 2015 with a population of 1.136 billion, Africa accounted for 15.7% of the world population of 7.2 billion people, Africa’s population is set to hit 2.4 billion by 2050 and the continent will account for 25% of the 9.6 billion people, a stable middle class that will increase from 123 million in 2015 to 1.1 billion by 2060. Africa is a huge market waiting to be explored, so access to abundant mineral resources for its manufacturing in China and a huge market to sell its finished products is key to Chinese Economic Growth.

Today Africa is estimated to contain 90% of the entire world supply of Platinum and Cobalt, two-thirds of world manganese and 35% of the world’s uranium, and half of the world’s gold supply. Nearly 75% of the world’s coltan is in Africa, the major important mineral component used in electronic devices including cellphones. As a leading cell phone manufacturer, according to statistics, over 1 billion cell phones was produced in China between 2014 and 2015, but between January 2017 and June 2018 cell phone production had increased to 2.086.1 billion, China needs a constant flow of mineral resources to meet it demand and Africa is its target.

To meet its furniture demands in furniture, the Chinese are also championing the deforestation of Africa, in 2017, the Environmental Investigation Agency (EIA) a Non-Governmental Organization based in the United States released a report “The Rosewood Racket China’s Billion Dollar Illegal Timber Trade and The Deforestation of Nigeria’s Forest” the report chronicles how 40 containers of scares Rosewood trees are shipped put of Nigeria daily. The trees are cut down, converted to logs and leaves North-Eastern Nigeria everyday through Shagamu and eventually shipped out from Apapa port by the Chinese, the 40 containers are said to be equivalent to 5400 logs and 2,800 trees daily.

China is massively devouring Africa’s mineral and Natural resources, and to go to the same China for loans might spell doom for the continent, especially with China’s predatory lending style…

So What is Predatory Lending?…… and The Chinese Strategy?

Predatory Lending includes any unscrupulous actions carried out by a lender to entice, induce and assist a borrower in taking a loan that carries high fees. A high-interest rate, strips the borrower of equity or places the borrower in a lower credit rated loan to the benefit of the lender.

Predatory lending typically occurs on loans backed by some kind of collateral, so that if the borrower defaults on the loan, the lender can repossess or foreclose and profit by selling the repossessed or foreclosed property. Lenders may be accused of tricking a borrower into believing that an interest rate is lower than it actually is, or that the borrower’s ability to pay is greater than it actually is.

The lender, or others as agents of the lender, may well profit from repossession or foreclosure upon the collateral, and one of the big concerns around Chinese loans is the debt-trap diplomacy where the Chinese government will pressure countries that can’t pay into exploitative deals. In most or all cases, the repayment of loans is never the intent of the lender but how to takeover assets or collaterals of the borrower knowing full well that the borrower will default.

The Worries!!!….

On March 6th, 2018, the former US Secretary of States, Rex Tillerson stated that Beijing “Encourages dependency using opaque contracts, predatory loans practices, and corrupt deals that mire nations in debt and undercut their sovereignty, denying them their long-term, self-sustaining growth, Chinese investment does have the potential to address Africa’s infrastructure gap, but its approach has led to mounting debt and few, if any, jobs in most countries.”

Africa's debt to China

With the US lawmakers and government warning about Chinese Predatory lending in Africa and its subsequent effect on future economic growth of the continent, Sub-Saharan Africa’s debt to GDP is rising, in the 1980’s African economies were crippling under sovereign debts which alienated most of the countries from the global financial system in the mid-90’s.

In 2005, the rich lender nations reached a solution to forgive the loans of heavily indebted poor countries of which 30 were African countries from the World Bank, IMF, and African Development Bank. By 2008, median debt level to GDP was about 23%, and by 2012, Sub-Saharan African median debt level had risen to 30% of GDP and with subsequent borrowings increased to over 50% of GDP by 2017. Many fear that the debt level is getting worrisome and that most Sub-African countries will default on repayment and these are the countries holding most of the mineral and natural wealth of Africa.

A report written in 2016 by Deborah Brautigam, a professor of international political economy at John Hopkins, estimated that Chinese banks, contractors, and the government lent approximately $86 billion to Africa between 2000 and 2014 and about $29 billion of that was loans backed by natural resources.

China's Loan to Africa

Of the total debt of about $453 billion Sub-Saharan Africa owes in external debt stocks, Sub-Saharan Africa has borrowed $136 billion from China, which the Chinese government extended to Africa from year 2000 – 2017, that is 30% of Sub-Saharan total external debt stocks, and with the new $60 billion loan approved recently by the Chinese government, Africa’s debt to China will increase to almost $200 billion.

While China’s influence and loans continue to increase in Africa, Trade balance has also been skewed in favour of China, in 2015, China’s Export to Africa was about $150 billion in mostly finished goods while Africa exported about $38 billion worth of goods to China with majority being raw materials and unfinished goods. In 2016 Chinese Export to Africa was $88 billion and only imported $40 billion from Africa.

China’s long term strategy is to outdo the western world in its loans and grants to African, using them to buy influence and position itself to access the abundant mineral and natural resources, including the gain of geopolitical influence.

The Takeovers!!!……and the Future Takeovers

The Chinese predatory lending spreads across not only Africa but other poor countries as well, in 2010, China invested $1.5 billion to build the Hambatota port in Sri Lanka, and when the country couldn’t repay the debt, Sri Lanka signed a 99-year lease of the port with a Chinese state-owned company to service some of the billions it owed.

Recently it was reported that Zambia was in talks with China over a possible takeover of the country’s electricity company, ZEWASCO, after defaulting on loan repayment, and possible takeover of the Kenneth Kaunda International Airport also belonging to Zambia should they fail to meet their debt obligations with China, though government has refuted the claims but many claiming the takeover bid to be true.

Recently a lawmaker in Kenya addressed the house warning the government of the impending disaster ahead claiming if Kenya does not wakeup the country will end up selling its national assets to China, 66% of Kenya debt is to the Chinese. China constructed the Lamu Port in Kenya fr $16 billion, and Kenya is set to default in three years’ time unless they can pay 1 million Kenyan shillings per day. Lamu Port is the biggest port in east Africa and will be handed over to the Chinese for 99 years. The challenge will be when a major importer  and exporter of your mineral resources take over your port.

Of the $136 billion loan given to Africa since year 2000, Angola which is mineral and natural resource rich country accounts for $42 billion. Angola used oil as part of its collateral for loans from China and as oil prices plunged, it found itself with more oil flowing to China for debt repayment and less to sell in the international market to plug budget deficits. It also means that to make their money, Western Oil companies which manage Angola’s production with exports of 1.8 million barrels/day will take more for their investments and services.

In 2017, Djibouti leased land to China for $20 million per year after lending billions of dollars to an heavily indebted Djibouti and the country unable to pay back the loans, China has used the land to set up its first oversea military base just a few miles from a US naval base which is the only permanent US military facility in Africa.

The story is the same across Sub-Saharan Africa for most countries that have courted China in loans for development, from Sierra Leone to Liberia, from Ghana to Nigeria where the Chinese are building the railways and some other major projects, and from Djibouti to Zimbabwe which many believe will soon start defaulting on its loan with China. While the loans are given, no cash is given to the countries, China executes and builds the projects using labour, materials, and equipment from China and undermining if there are available labour in those countries.

Most Asian Countries are starting to understand the predatory lending of China and are taking steps at cancelling such loans, they include Malaysia, Philippines, and Singapore who have recently cancelled some loans they see as being predatory.

With China using the debt-trap diplomacy on Africa and Africa’s debt increasing daily to China, African countries may well be positioned in the future to be recolonized through China’s strategy of Predatory Lending, but the worrisome part is the first colonization of Africa was through the use of force, while Africans basically used debt to entrap themselves this time around.


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Are Nigerians Benefiting From Democracy or is Democracy Simply Robbing and Impoverishing Them?

___The 2018 Budget, Between President Buhari and The National Assembly…A Critical Look at Data

“As long as Poverty, Injustice and Gross Inequality persist in our world, none of us can truly rest”……Nelson Mandela

In 1981 with a population of 75.7m people and 47% living below the poverty line, Nigeria had 35.6m people living in Poverty. By year 2000, a year after the Country had returned to democracy rule and with a population of 122.3m people, percentage living in Poverty had increased to 65% bringing the total headcount of people living below the poverty line to 79.5m people.

But something happened in the early 2000’s, The Federal Government in trying to cub the growing rate of Poverty, introduced The Poverty Alleviation Program (PAP) and by 2004 with a population of 135.4m people, Poverty as a percentage of population had reduced to 54.4% and headcount reduced to 73.7m people. This means that between 1981 and 2004 a period of 23 years, Nigeria added 38.1m people to poverty, an increase of 107%.

___The 2018 Budget, Between President Buhari and the National Assembly....A Critical Look at Data

In 1981 Nigeria’s GDP was $61.1bn and in 2004 GDP was $87.85bn, between 1981 and 2004 the GDP never went above $87.85 bn, in fact it reached its all-time lows between 1981 and 2004 with $20.7bn in 1986, and $21.35bn in 1993. So between 1981 and 2004 (23 years), Nigeria’s GDP only appreciated by $26.75 bn, an increase of 43.8%.

But in 2004, The Poverty Alleviation failed because the root cause of increasing poverty was not addressed which is investments in Human Capital Development and Infrastructural Investment to help the people create and generate wealth, rather government gave money to the people which was not sustainable.

Between 2004 and 2010 (6 years), Nigeria’s GDP exploded from $87.85bn in 2004 to $369.1bn in 2010, an increase of $281.25 bn and percentage increase of 320.2%, but the interesting thing was that poverty as a percentage of population also increased to 70%, and with a population of 158.6m people in 2010, the headcount living below the poverty line increased to 111m, an increase of 33.3m people in just 6 years.

While Nigeria rebased its economy in 2013 with GDP at $510bn and reaching an all-time high of $569bn in 2014, Poverty as a percentage of population still stood at 70%. As at 2018 and a population of 198 m people, percentage living in Poverty in Nigeria still stands at 70% which means that about 138.6 m people are living in poverty in Nigeria. This means that between 2004 and 2018, a period of 14 years, 64.9m people were added to poverty, increase of 88.1% in 14 years. And between 2004 with a GDP of $87.85bn and 2018 with a GDP of $406bn, Nigeria’s GDP has increased by $318.15 bn, a percentage increase of 362.2%.

Countries With Extreme Poverty

PRESIDENT BUHARI AND NASS

While the President had submitted a budget to boost infrastructure, and use the investment as a fiscal policy to help grow the economy, it is imperative to note that Nigeria has been operating an Expense Budget and not Investment Budgets since the Mid-80’s (Majorly recurrent expenditure) which has made it almost impossible for its citizens to grow wealth since investment in Human Capital Development and Infrastructural Developments are what helps the country create and generate wealth.

Since coming into office, the President has continued to Increase Capital Expenditure as a percentage of the Budget, from 23.8% in 2014 and 15% in 2015, Capital Expenditure has stood at 30% of the Budget since 2016. But the 2018 budget which has taken 7 months to approve by NASS, the legislative arm of government has cut N347bn in the allocations to 4,700 projects from the original budget summited to them and introduced 6,403 projects of their own which amounts to N578 bn, as usual funds are allocated as constituency allowance for projects but they are never executed, as in some cases to be seen to have done something, the projects are so over bloated that even an idiot knows they have been ripped off.

The President had stated that some of the Strategic National/Regional infrastructure which the NASS had cut funding from which was supposed to help the country included the Mambilla Power plant, Second Niger Bridge/Ancillary roads, The East-West Road, Bonny-Bodo Road, Lagos-Ibadan Expressway, and Itakpe-Ajaokuta Rail Project. Others include Abuja arterial roads and Mass Transit Rail Projects, the Rehabilitation of the United Nations building, Interventions in the Health Sector which included Tertiary Health Institutions, Provision of Security Infrastructure in the 104 Unity Schools, Federal Government National Housing programme. Take off grant for the Maritime University, Enugu Airport, Export Expansion Grant and Special Economic Zones/Industrial parks.

While NASS is cutting down on funding of critical projects that will grow the economy and reduce Poverty, they are increasing their budget to put money in their own pockets. NASS through Statutory Transfer has increased its budget by N14.5bn from N125bn to N139.5bn. These are major reasons Poverty will never reduce in Nigeria because funds meant to grow the economy are directed to end up in people’s pockets.

COMPARING NIGERIA TO OTHER COUNTRIES…….

“Poverty is the absence of all human rights. The frustrations, hostility and anger generated by abject poverty cannot sustain peace in any society”……Muhammad Yunus

Nigeria is the only Emerging Economy in the world where GDP is increasing and Poverty is also increasing, between 1981 and 2016, other countries that have recorded economic growth have succesfully reduced Poverty. China while recording economic growth has lifted 789.5 million people out of Poverty, Indonesia has lifted out 78.7 million people, Thailand has lifted out 29.4 million people, Bangladesh has lifted out 24.4 million people, Malaysia has lifted out 2.93 million people, and India has lifted out 137.2 million people, but Nigeria added 90.4 million people to poverty between 1981 and 2016 alone and a total of 94.7 million from 1981 to 2018.

While the President wants to invest in Infrastructure to help Nigerians and the Nation build Wealth and get out of the Poverty Trap, the National Assembly world rather Nigerian’s continue to live in Poverty while they divert funds into their own pockets.


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Nigeria and the Poverty Trap: How Lack of Government’s Investment in Public Education has Entrapped Nigerians in what is called the Poverty Trap.

Nigeria, Education Expenditure, and the Poverty Trap.

Between 1981 and 2016, Nigeria’s GDP grew from $61.1bn to $405bn reaching an all-time high of $569bn in 2014. Yet from 1981 to 2016 Nigeria added 90.4 million people to Poverty which has continued to increase to date.

On the 25th of May, 2018, I had a session on Channels TV on why we have had increasing “Economic Growth” over the years and why Poverty in also growing creating what is called the Poverty Trap for citizens of the country.

Economic growth should lead to Economic Development and further lead to Human Development, while Nigeria has had Economic growth over the years, it has not led to both Economic Development and Human Development.

Main while other countries that have recorded Economic Growth have succeeded in reducing poverty over the same period. China has lifted 789.5 million people out of Poverty, Indonesia has lifted out 78.7 million people out of Poverty, Thailand has lifted 29.4 million people out of Poverty, Bangladesh has lifted 24.3 million people out of Poverty, Malaysia has lifted 2.93 million people out of Poverty, and India has lifted 137.2 million people out of Poverty.

Find out how government’s lack of investment in Education (Human Capital Development) and how school fees has plunged the average family in Nigeria into what is called the Poverty Trap and Economic Stagnation for the country.

Watch the complete session and understand why Poverty will continue to increase in Nigeria despite increasing economic growth.